BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Wyoming

MWC · 1-1 (0-1 MWC) · power -3.7 · #225
Our side · spreadWYO +1.5 our number CMU -0.2 · 1.3 pts from the market our number starts from the opening line and is corrected -1.9 for this matchup by our data on both teams

Central Michigan

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.5 · #222
Our side
SpreadWYO +1.5 ours CMU -0.2
TotalOver 39.5 ours 46.1
MoneylineCMU to win ours 55% · book 51%
Distance from the market 1.3 pts / +6.6 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 23–23 WYO – CMU
2026-09-19 · 1:00 PM Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Mount Pleasant, MI Early season

The books 4 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book WYO spreadCMU spread OverUnder WYO winCMU win WYO TT overWYO TT under CMU TT overCMU TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadCentral Michigan -0.2
the marketCentral Michigan -1.5
Total46.1
the market39.5
Central Michigan win55% vs 51%

Both percentages are Central Michigan’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 2 hr ago total Over 72% bets · 71% money ML CMU 82% bets · 61% money
Series Wyoming lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2000
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Central Michigan Chippewas 140 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense Central Michigan Chippewas #82 run defense
Pass game edge Central Michigan Chippewas 151 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense Central Michigan Chippewas #71 pass defense
Run game edge Wyoming Cowboys 58 ranks
Central Michigan Chippewas #154 rush offense Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game even 14 ranks apart
Central Michigan Chippewas #12 pass offense Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Wyoming Cowboys Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Central Michigan Chippewas Run-heavy · 68% run Ball-control
Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded Matt Drinkall · 7-6

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wyoming Cowboys
DL Esaia Bogar 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #25 DL
LB Ethan Stuhlsatz 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #18 LB
DB Jones Thomas 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #94 DB
DL Jack Dunkley 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #328 DL
Central Michigan Chippewas
DB Darrell Bryant Jr. 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #158 DB
DL Hunter Zirkle 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #183 DL
DL Korver Demma 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #219 DL
LB Mayson Hitchens 15 tkl #178 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wyoming CowboysMWC -3.7 -9.4 +5.7 #225
Central Michigan ChippewasMAC -3.5 -8.6 +5.1 #222

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wyoming offense vs Central Michigan defense-14.5 pts
Central Michigan offense vs Wyoming defense-14.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,069 mi
Altitude · context only1,959 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.