Our side
MoneylineNEV to win
ours 51%
Projected score
24–26
AF – NEV
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Air Force lead
6–2
· 8 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Air Force Falcons
216 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass game
edge Air Force Falcons
112 ranks
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Run game
edge Nevada Wolf Pack
80 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense
Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game
even
8 ranks apart
Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense
Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Air Force Falcons
Run-heavy · 80% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg
Nevada Wolf Pack
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded
Jeff Choate · 6-19
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Air Force Falcons
LB
Blake Fletcher
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#1 LB
P
Will Duncan
5 punts · 56.0 yd avg
#18 P
LB
Dallas Daley
12 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#238 LB
DB
Korey Johnson
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#501 DB
Nevada Wolf Pack
DL
Dylan LaBarbera
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#16 DL
LB
EJ Smith
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#13 LB
RB
Dominic Kelley
236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#53 RB
LB
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#150 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Air Force offense vs Nevada defense-5.2 pts
Nevada offense vs Air Force defense-6.5 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 801 mi
Altitude · context only614 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.