← Matchups

Hawai'i

MWC · 1-2 (0-1 MWC) · power +2.1 · #151
Our numberHAW -2.9 no book has priced this game

Wyoming

MWC · 1-1 (0-1 MWC) · power -3.7 · #225
Our side
MoneylineHAW to win ours 42%
Projected score 25–22 HAW – WYO
2026-09-26 · 3:00 PM War Memorial Stadium · Laramie, WY MWC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Wyoming lead 17–12 · 29 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Wyoming Cowboys 109 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game edge Wyoming Cowboys 71 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Run game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 97 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 77 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Wyoming Cowboys Balanced · 52% run Avg pace
Timmy Chang · 22-29 Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB Kona Moore 30 tkl · 2 PD #13 DB
RB DeVon Rice 167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec #23 RB
LB Jamih Otis 26 tkl #53 LB
DB Matagi Thompson 15 tkl · 4 PD #122 DB
Wyoming Cowboys
DL Esaia Bogar 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #25 DL
LB Ethan Stuhlsatz 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #18 LB
DB Jones Thomas 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #94 DB
DL Jack Dunkley 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #328 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsMWC +2.1 -0.9 +3.0 #151
Wyoming CowboysMWC -3.7 -9.4 +5.7 #225

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hawai'i offense vs Wyoming defense-6.6 pts
Wyoming offense vs Hawai'i defense-12.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 3,322 mi
Altitude · context only2,196 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.