Our side
MoneylineGAST to win
ours 59%
Projected score
22–27
NIU – GAST
2026-09-26 · kickoff TBD
Center Parc Stadium · Atlanta, GA
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northern Illinois Huskies
104 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense
Georgia State Panthers #237 run defense
Pass game
even
7 ranks apart
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense
Georgia State Panthers #239 pass defense
Run game
even
9 ranks apart
Georgia State Panthers #158 rush offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game
edge Northern Illinois Huskies
91 ranks
Georgia State Panthers #138 pass offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Northern Illinois Huskies
Run-heavy · 71% run
Ball-control
Georgia State Panthers
Balanced · 50% run
Avg pace
Thomas Hammock · 35-47
Dell McGee · 4-20 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB
Jashawn Nelson
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#47 LB
DB
Avery Jones
11 tkl
#136 DB
LB
Jack Murray
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#108 LB
DB
Andruw Ellis
1 tkl · 1 INT
#204 DB
Georgia State Panthers
QB
Cameran Brown
443 pass yds · 2 TD · 1 INT
#48 QB
RB
Dennis Murray Jr.
75 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#101 RB
LB
Xavier Esqillion
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#156 LB
DL
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
6 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#281 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Illinois offense vs Georgia State defense-3.5 pts
Georgia State offense vs Northern Illinois defense-1.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 615 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.