← Matchups

UTEP

CUSA · 1-1 · power -2.1 · #199

Our numberUNM -16.7 ~~no book has priced this game~~

New Mexico

MWC · 2-0 · power +12.1 · #73

Our side

MoneylineUNM to win ours 84%

Projected score 18–35 UTEP – UNM

2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series New Mexico lead 37–31–2 · 70 meetings since 1934

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge New Mexico Lobos ~~104 ranks~~

UTEP Miners #177 rush offense New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense

Pass game edge New Mexico Lobos ~~151 ranks~~

UTEP Miners #250 pass offense New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense

Run game edge UTEP Miners ~~50 ranks~~

New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense UTEP Miners #59 run defense

Pass game even ~~1 ranks apart~~

New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense UTEP Miners #114 pass defense

UTEP Miners Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg New Mexico Lobos Balanced · 56% run Avg pace

Scotty Walden · 6-22 · defense-minded Jason Eck · 9-4

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

UTEP Miners

TE Cash Cheeks 3 rec · 51 yds · 2 TD #55 TE

QB EJ Colson Jr. 291 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #73 QB

RB Tavorus Jones 128 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #205 RB

DL Derek Burns 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #516 DL

New Mexico Lobos

RB Scottre Humphrey 174 rush yds · 3 TD #64 RB

TE Cade Keith 5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD #46 TE

DL Brett Karhu 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #260 DL

K Grant Glasgow 3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts #43 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
UTEP Miners~~CUSA~~	-2.1	+0.4	-2.5	#199
New Mexico Lobos~~MWC~~	+12.1	+9.1	+3.0	#73

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

UTEP offense vs New Mexico defense-2.5 pts

New Mexico offense vs UTEP defense+11.6 pts

Altitude · context only371 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.