← Matchups

Wyoming

MWC · 1-1 (0-1 MWC) · power -3.7 · #225
Our numberNDSU -18.4 no book has priced this game

North Dakota State

· 3-0 · power +18.9 · #43
Our side
MoneylineNDSU to win ours 87%
Projected score 15–33 WYO – NDSU
2026-10-03 · 3:30 PM Fargodome · Fargo, ND Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Wyoming lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2008
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 164 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota State Bison 221 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 88 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game even 24 ranks apart
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Wyoming Cowboys Balanced · 52% run Avg pace North Dakota State Bison Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wyoming Cowboys
DL Esaia Bogar 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #25 DL
LB Ethan Stuhlsatz 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #18 LB
DB Jones Thomas 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #94 DB
DL Jack Dunkley 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #328 DL
North Dakota State Bison
K Drew Klein 6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts #7 K
DB Marion Moore 3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #110 DB
DL Kelton McCaslin 6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL #133 DL
LB Donovan Woolen 22 tkl #93 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wyoming CowboysMWC -3.7 -9.4 +5.7 #225
North Dakota State Bison +18.9 +9.1 +9.8 #43

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wyoming offense vs North Dakota State defense-19.2 pts
North Dakota State offense vs Wyoming defense+3.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 581 mi
Altitude · context only1,926 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.