Our side
MoneylineAF to win
ours 38%
Projected score
26–22
AF – NIU
2026-10-10 · 7:30 PM
Huskie Stadium · Dekalb, IL
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Air Force Falcons
133 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game
even
44 ranks apart
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Run game
edge Northern Illinois Huskies
126 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense
Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game
even
23 ranks apart
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense
Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Air Force Falcons
Run-heavy · 80% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg
Northern Illinois Huskies
Run-heavy · 71% run
Ball-control
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded
Thomas Hammock · 35-47
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Air Force Falcons
LB
Blake Fletcher
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#1 LB
P
Will Duncan
5 punts · 56.0 yd avg
#18 P
LB
Dallas Daley
12 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#238 LB
DB
Korey Johnson
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#501 DB
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB
Jashawn Nelson
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#47 LB
DB
Avery Jones
11 tkl
#136 DB
LB
Jack Murray
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#108 LB
DB
Andruw Ellis
1 tkl · 1 INT
#204 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Air Force offense vs Northern Illinois defense-0.3 pts
Northern Illinois offense vs Air Force defense-7.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 867 mi
Altitude · context only1,750 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.