Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win
ours 61%
Projected score
24–29
NDSU – UNLV
2026-10-10 · 7:00 PM
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
225 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense
UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
144 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense
UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense
North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
49 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense
North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
UNLV Rebels
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota State Bison
K
Drew Klein
6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts
#7 K
DB
Marion Moore
3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#110 DB
DL
Kelton McCaslin
6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#133 DL
LB
Donovan Woolen
22 tkl
#93 LB
UNLV Rebels
DB
Tre Fulton
21 tkl · 1 PD
#28 DB
DB
Jake Pope
23 tkl · 1 PD
#62 DB
RB
Jai'Den Thomas
224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#69 RB
DB
Denver Harris
10 tkl · 2 PD
#212 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota State offense vs UNLV defense+1.0 pts
UNLV offense vs North Dakota State defense-7.9 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+6.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,204 mi
Altitude · context only390 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.