Our side
MoneylineNDSU to win
ours 73%
Projected score
20–30
NEV – NDSU
2026-10-17 · 7:00 PM
Fargodome · Fargo, ND
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
121 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense
North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
262 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense
North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
242 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
113 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Nevada Wolf Pack
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Jeff Choate · 6-19
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Nevada Wolf Pack
DL
Dylan LaBarbera
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#16 DL
LB
EJ Smith
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#13 LB
RB
Dominic Kelley
236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#53 RB
LB
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#150 LB
North Dakota State Bison
K
Drew Klein
6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts
#7 K
DB
Marion Moore
3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#110 DB
DL
Kelton McCaslin
6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#133 DL
LB
Donovan Woolen
22 tkl
#93 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Nevada offense vs North Dakota State defense-13.2 pts
North Dakota State offense vs Nevada defense+0.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,259 mi
Altitude · context only1,130 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.