Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win
ours 47%
Projected score
24–26
UNLV – AF
2026-10-17 · 3:30 PM
Falcon Stadium · USAF Academy, CO
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Air Force lead
18–8
· 26 meetings since 1981
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge UNLV Rebels
239 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense
Air Force Falcons #259 run defense
Pass game
edge UNLV Rebels
205 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense
Air Force Falcons #255 pass defense
Run game
edge Air Force Falcons
199 ranks
Air Force Falcons #34 rush offense
UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game
edge Air Force Falcons
143 ranks
Air Force Falcons #3 pass offense
UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
UNLV Rebels
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Air Force Falcons
Run-heavy · 80% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 92 rush ypg
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded
Troy Calhoun · 80-53 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UNLV Rebels
DB
Tre Fulton
21 tkl · 1 PD
#28 DB
DB
Jake Pope
23 tkl · 1 PD
#62 DB
RB
Jai'Den Thomas
224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#69 RB
DB
Denver Harris
10 tkl · 2 PD
#212 DB
Air Force Falcons
LB
Blake Fletcher
21 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#1 LB
P
Will Duncan
5 punts · 56.0 yd avg
#18 P
LB
Dallas Daley
12 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#238 LB
DB
Korey Johnson
6 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#501 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UNLV offense vs Air Force defense-1.2 pts
Air Force offense vs UNLV defense-4.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 601 mi
Altitude · context only1,354 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.