← Matchups

Hawai'i

MWC · 1-2 (0-1 MWC) · power +2.1 · #151
Our numberNIU -1.4 no book has priced this game

Northern Illinois

MAC · 0-2 · power -0.1 · #185
Our side
MoneylineHAW to win ours 49%
Projected score 23–25 HAW – NIU
2026-10-24 · kickoff TBD Huskie Stadium · Dekalb, IL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 38 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Illinois Huskies 50 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Run game even 8 ranks apart
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors 87 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors Balanced · 42% run Avg pace Northern Illinois Huskies Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control
Timmy Chang · 22-29 Thomas Hammock · 35-47

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB Kona Moore 30 tkl · 2 PD #13 DB
RB DeVon Rice 167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec #23 RB
LB Jamih Otis 26 tkl #53 LB
DB Matagi Thompson 15 tkl · 4 PD #122 DB
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB Jashawn Nelson 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #47 LB
DB Avery Jones 11 tkl #136 DB
LB Jack Murray 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #108 LB
DB Andruw Ellis 1 tkl · 1 INT #204 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hawai'i Rainbow WarriorsMWC +2.1 -0.9 +3.0 #151
Northern Illinois HuskiesMAC -0.1 -4.2 +4.1 #185

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hawai'i offense vs Northern Illinois defense-5.0 pts
Northern Illinois offense vs Hawai'i defense-7.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 4,188 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.