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North Dakota State

· 3-0 · power +18.9 · #43
Our numberUNM -7.9 no book has priced this game

New Mexico

MWC · 2-0 · power +12.1 · #73
Our side
MoneylineUNM to win ours 69%
Projected score 26–33 NDSU – UNM
2026-10-24 · 10:00 PM University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 65 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota State Bison 97 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 51 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota State Bison 114 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
North Dakota State Bison Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg New Mexico Lobos Balanced · 56% run Avg pace
Jason Eck · 9-4

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota State Bison
K Drew Klein 6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts #7 K
DB Marion Moore 3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #110 DB
DL Kelton McCaslin 6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL #133 DL
LB Donovan Woolen 22 tkl #93 LB
New Mexico Lobos
RB Scottre Humphrey 174 rush yds · 3 TD #64 RB
TE Cade Keith 5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD #46 TE
DL Brett Karhu 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #260 DL
K Grant Glasgow 3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts #43 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
North Dakota State Bison +18.9 +9.1 +9.8 #43
New Mexico LobosMWC +12.1 +9.1 +3.0 #73

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
North Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defense+6.1 pts
New Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defense-0.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 963 mi
Altitude · context only1,280 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.