Our side
MoneylineUNM to win
ours 69%
Projected score
26–33
NDSU – UNM
2026-10-24 · 10:00 PM
University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
65 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense
New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
97 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense
New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
51 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense
North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
114 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense
North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
New Mexico Lobos
Balanced · 56% run
Avg pace
Jason Eck · 9-4
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota State Bison
K
Drew Klein
6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts
#7 K
DB
Marion Moore
3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#110 DB
DL
Kelton McCaslin
6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#133 DL
LB
Donovan Woolen
22 tkl
#93 LB
New Mexico Lobos
RB
Scottre Humphrey
174 rush yds · 3 TD
#64 RB
TE
Cade Keith
5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD
#46 TE
DL
Brett Karhu
4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#260 DL
K
Grant Glasgow
3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts
#43 K
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota State offense vs New Mexico defense+6.1 pts
New Mexico offense vs North Dakota State defense-0.7 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 963 mi
Altitude · context only1,280 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.