Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win
ours 77%
Projected score
19–29
NIU – UNLV
2026-10-31 · 10:30 PM
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
Indoors
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Northern Illinois lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 1987
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Northern Illinois Huskies
100 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense
UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game
edge UNLV Rebels
86 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense
UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
Run game
edge UNLV Rebels
147 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game
even
3 ranks apart
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense
Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Northern Illinois Huskies
Run-heavy · 71% run
Ball-control
UNLV Rebels
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Thomas Hammock · 35-47
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB
Jashawn Nelson
19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#47 LB
DB
Avery Jones
11 tkl
#136 DB
LB
Jack Murray
18 tkl · 0.5 TFL
#108 LB
DB
Andruw Ellis
1 tkl · 1 INT
#204 DB
UNLV Rebels
DB
Tre Fulton
21 tkl · 1 PD
#28 DB
DB
Jake Pope
23 tkl · 1 PD
#62 DB
RB
Jai'Den Thomas
224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec
#69 RB
DB
Denver Harris
10 tkl · 2 PD
#212 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Northern Illinois offense vs UNLV defense-12.3 pts
UNLV offense vs Northern Illinois defense-2.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,467 mi
Altitude · context only397 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.