← Matchups

UTEP

CUSA · 1-1 · power -2.1 · #199
Our numberNDSU -17.0 no book has priced this game

North Dakota State

· 3-0 · power +18.9 · #43
Our side
MoneylineNDSU to win ours 85%
Projected score 20–37 UTEP – NDSU
2026-10-31 · 3:30 PM Fargodome · Fargo, ND Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 119 ranks
UTEP Miners #177 rush offense North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota State Bison 249 ranks
UTEP Miners #250 pass offense North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
Run game edge North Dakota State Bison 51 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense UTEP Miners #59 run defense
Pass game edge North Dakota State Bison 112 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense UTEP Miners #114 pass defense
UTEP Miners Balanced · 50% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 44 rush ypg North Dakota State Bison Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Scotty Walden · 6-22 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UTEP Miners
TE Cash Cheeks 3 rec · 51 yds · 2 TD #55 TE
QB EJ Colson Jr. 291 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #73 QB
RB Tavorus Jones 128 rush yds · 1 TD · 4 rec #205 RB
DL Derek Burns 4 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #516 DL
North Dakota State Bison
K Drew Klein 6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts #7 K
DB Marion Moore 3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #110 DB
DL Kelton McCaslin 6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL #133 DL
LB Donovan Woolen 22 tkl #93 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UTEP MinersCUSA -2.1 +0.4 -2.5 #199
North Dakota State Bison +18.9 +9.1 +9.8 #43

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UTEP offense vs North Dakota State defense-9.3 pts
North Dakota State offense vs UTEP defense+11.6 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,165 mi
Altitude · context only908 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.