← Matchups

New Mexico

MWC · 2-0 · power +12.1 · #73
Our numberUNM -6.5 no book has priced this game

Nevada

MWC · 1-1 · power +5.6 · #116
Our side
MoneylineUNM to win ours 39%
Projected score 28–22 UNM – NEV
2026-11-06 · 9:00 PM Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV MWC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nevada lead 6–4–1 · 11 meetings since 1941
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge New Mexico Lobos 141 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass game even 0 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Run game edge New Mexico Lobos 106 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game edge New Mexico Lobos 164 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
New Mexico Lobos Balanced · 56% run Avg pace Nevada Wolf Pack Run-heavy · 64% run Ball-control
Jason Eck · 9-4 Jeff Choate · 6-19

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico Lobos
RB Scottre Humphrey 174 rush yds · 3 TD #64 RB
TE Cade Keith 5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD #46 TE
DL Brett Karhu 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #260 DL
K Grant Glasgow 3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts #43 K
Nevada Wolf Pack
DL Dylan LaBarbera 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #16 DL
LB EJ Smith 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #13 LB
RB Dominic Kelley 236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #53 RB
LB Jeremy Naborne-Owens 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #150 LB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
New Mexico LobosMWC +12.1 +9.1 +3.0 #73
Nevada Wolf PackMWC +5.6 -3.4 +8.9 #116

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
New Mexico offense vs Nevada defense+0.2 pts
Nevada offense vs New Mexico defense-6.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 787 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.