← Matchups

Wyoming

MWC · 1-1 (0-1 MWC) · power -3.7 · #225
Our numberUNLV -11.3 no book has priced this game

UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85
Our side
MoneylineUNLV to win ours 83%
Projected score 18–30 WYO – UNLV
2026-11-07 · 10:30 PM Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV MWC game Indoors Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Wyoming lead 14–13 · 27 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 11 ranks apart
Wyoming Cowboys #222 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game edge UNLV Rebels 76 ranks
Wyoming Cowboys #222 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
Run game edge UNLV Rebels 76 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense Wyoming Cowboys #96 run defense
Pass game even 24 ranks apart
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense Wyoming Cowboys #26 pass defense
Wyoming Cowboys Balanced · 52% run Avg pace UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg
Jay Sawvel · 7-17 · defense-minded Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Wyoming Cowboys
DL Esaia Bogar 12 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #25 DL
LB Ethan Stuhlsatz 26 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.0 TFL #18 LB
DB Jones Thomas 13 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT #94 DB
DL Jack Dunkley 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.5 TFL #328 DL
UNLV Rebels
DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB
DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB
RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB
DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Wyoming CowboysMWC -3.7 -9.4 +5.7 #225
UNLV RebelsMWC +10.0 +1.9 +8.1 #85

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Wyoming offense vs UNLV defense-17.5 pts
UNLV offense vs Wyoming defense-3.8 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 631 mi
Altitude · context only1,535 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyAway team on 8 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.