← Matchups

Nevada

MWC · 1-1 · power +5.6 · #116
Our numberNEV -1.6 no book has priced this game

Northern Illinois

MAC · 0-2 · power -0.1 · #185
Our side
MoneylineNEV to win ours 41%
Projected score 24–23 NEV – NIU
2026-11-14 · kickoff TBD Huskie Stadium · Dekalb, IL Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Nevada and Northern Illinois split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 1993
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game even 12 ranks apart
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense Northern Illinois Huskies #167 run defense
Pass game edge Northern Illinois Huskies 216 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense Northern Illinois Huskies #47 pass defense
Run game edge Northern Illinois Huskies 117 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #133 rush offense Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass game edge Nevada Wolf Pack 117 ranks
Northern Illinois Huskies #232 pass offense Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Nevada Wolf Pack Run-heavy · 64% run Ball-control Northern Illinois Huskies Run-heavy · 71% run Ball-control
Jeff Choate · 6-19 Thomas Hammock · 35-47

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Nevada Wolf Pack
DL Dylan LaBarbera 15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #16 DL
LB EJ Smith 24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #13 LB
RB Dominic Kelley 236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec #53 RB
LB Jeremy Naborne-Owens 14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #150 LB
Northern Illinois Huskies
LB Jashawn Nelson 19 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #47 LB
DB Avery Jones 11 tkl #136 DB
LB Jack Murray 18 tkl · 0.5 TFL #108 LB
DB Andruw Ellis 1 tkl · 1 INT #204 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Nevada Wolf PackMWC +5.6 -3.4 +8.9 #116
Northern Illinois HuskiesMAC -0.1 -4.2 +4.1 #185

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Nevada offense vs Northern Illinois defense-7.4 pts
Northern Illinois offense vs Nevada defense-13.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,624 mi
Altitude · context only1,136 m lower than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.