Our side
MoneylineNDSU to win
ours 45%
Projected score
28–26
NDSU – HAW
2026-11-14 · 11:59 PM
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex · Honolulu, HI
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
117 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #8 rush offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
143 ranks
North Dakota State Bison #2 pass offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Run game
edge North Dakota State Bison
147 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense
North Dakota State Bison #58 run defense
Pass game
edge North Dakota State Bison
96 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense
North Dakota State Bison #1 pass defense
North Dakota State Bison
Run-heavy · 67% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 60 rush ypg
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Timmy Chang · 22-29
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
North Dakota State Bison
K
Drew Klein
6 FG · 13 XP · 31 pts
#7 K
DB
Marion Moore
3 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT
#110 DB
DL
Kelton McCaslin
6 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#133 DL
LB
Donovan Woolen
22 tkl
#93 LB
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB
Kona Moore
30 tkl · 2 PD
#13 DB
RB
DeVon Rice
167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec
#23 RB
LB
Jamih Otis
26 tkl
#53 LB
DB
Matagi Thompson
15 tkl · 4 PD
#122 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
North Dakota State offense vs Hawai'i defense+6.1 pts
Hawai'i offense vs North Dakota State defense-10.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-0.0
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 3,800 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.