BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

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UNLV

MWC · 1-2 (1-0 MWC) · power +10.0 · #85
Our numberUNM -7.3 no book has priced this game

New Mexico

MWC · 2-0 · power +12.1 · #73
Our side
MoneylineUNM to win ours 60%
Projected score 22–29 UNLV – UNM
2026-11-14 · 7:30 PM University Stadium (NM) · Albuquerque, NM MWC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series UNLV lead 15–13 · 28 meetings since 1978
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge UNLV Rebels 53 ranks
UNLV Rebels #20 rush offense New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game edge UNLV Rebels 49 ranks
UNLV Rebels #50 pass offense New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
Run game edge New Mexico Lobos 124 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense UNLV Rebels #233 run defense
Pass game even 31 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense UNLV Rebels #146 pass defense
UNLV Rebels Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 48 rush ypg New Mexico Lobos Balanced · 56% run Avg pace
Dan Mullen · 67-34 · offense-minded Jason Eck · 9-4

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UNLV Rebels
DB Tre Fulton 21 tkl · 1 PD #28 DB
DB Jake Pope 23 tkl · 1 PD #62 DB
RB Jai'Den Thomas 224 rush yds · 1 TD · 7 rec #69 RB
DB Denver Harris 10 tkl · 2 PD #212 DB
New Mexico Lobos
RB Scottre Humphrey 174 rush yds · 3 TD #64 RB
TE Cade Keith 5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD #46 TE
DL Brett Karhu 4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL #260 DL
K Grant Glasgow 3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts #43 K

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UNLV RebelsMWC +10.0 +1.9 +8.1 #85
New Mexico LobosMWC +12.1 +9.1 +3.0 #73

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UNLV offense vs New Mexico defense-1.1 pts
New Mexico offense vs UNLV defense+1.1 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 486 mi
Altitude · context only889 m higher than the visitor's home elevation

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.