Our side
MoneylineNEV to win
ours 63%
Projected score
21–29
HAW – NEV
2026-11-21 · kickoff TBD
Mackay Stadium · Reno, NV
MWC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Nevada lead
14–13
· 27 meetings since 1946
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
45 ranks
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #205 rush offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #250 run defense
Pass game
even
18 ranks apart
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #97 pass offense
Nevada Wolf Pack #115 pass defense
Run game
edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
54 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #179 rush offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #125 run defense
Pass game
edge Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
118 ranks
Nevada Wolf Pack #263 pass offense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors #145 pass defense
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
Balanced · 42% run
Avg pace
Nevada Wolf Pack
Run-heavy · 64% run
Ball-control
Timmy Chang · 22-29
Jeff Choate · 6-19
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
DB
Kona Moore
30 tkl · 2 PD
#13 DB
RB
DeVon Rice
167 rush yds · 3 TD · 10 rec
#23 RB
LB
Jamih Otis
26 tkl
#53 LB
DB
Matagi Thompson
15 tkl · 4 PD
#122 DB
Nevada Wolf Pack
DL
Dylan LaBarbera
15 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#16 DL
LB
EJ Smith
24 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#13 LB
RB
Dominic Kelley
236 rush yds · 2 TD · 1 rec
#53 RB
LB
Jeremy Naborne-Owens
14 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#150 LB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Hawai'i offense vs Nevada defense-9.9 pts
Nevada offense vs Hawai'i defense-6.4 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 2,565 mi
Altitude · context only1,400 m higher than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.