FinalNMSU 17 · FSU 34ML Wour logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineFSU to winloggedours 85%
Our number: FSU by 20.4 — FSU to win.
NMSU team totalNMSU over 10.5loggedours 18.2
Our number: NMSU 16.1, from our margin and total split into two scores.
FSU team totalFSU under 42.5loggedours 36.5
Our number: FSU 36.5, from our margin and total split into two scores.
Projected score18–36NMSU – FSU
2026-08-29 · 7:00 PMDoak Campbell Stadium · Tallahassee, FLEarly season
The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book
Book
NMSU spread
FSU spread
Over
Under
NMSU win
FSU win
NMSU TT over
NMSU TT under
FSU TT over
FSU TT under
DraftKings
—
—
—
—
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars
—
—
The gold price is the best available on that side;
a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick.
TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s;
columns are empty where no book hangs one.
Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked.
Prices are the books’ own.
Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Networkcaptured in-gamespreadNMSU 90% bets · 76% moneytotalUnder 79% bets · 40% money · money OverMLFSU 97% bets · 77% money
Series
Florida State lead
1–0
· 1 meeting since 1964
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run gameedge Florida State Seminoles155 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offenseFlorida State Seminoles #107 run defense
Pass gameedge Florida State Seminoles122 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offenseFlorida State Seminoles #69 pass defense
Run gameeven19 ranks apart
Florida State Seminoles #21 rush offenseNew Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass gameedge Florida State Seminoles109 ranks
Florida State Seminoles #32 pass offenseNew Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
New Mexico State AggiesBalanced · 47% runAvg paceFlorida State SeminolesRun-heavy · 60% runAvg paceDual-threat QB · 46 rush ypg
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-mindedMike Norvell · 76-50
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico State offense vs Florida State defense-9.6 pts
Florida State offense vs New Mexico State defense+6.9 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 1,328 mi
Altitude · context only1,189 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.