Our side
MoneylineUNM to win
ours 28%
Projected score
33–19
UNM – NMSU
2026-09-26 · 3:30 PM
Aggie Memorial Stadium · Las Cruces, NM
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Mexico lead
65–24–2
· 91 meetings since 1931
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge New Mexico State Aggies
69 ranks
New Mexico Lobos #109 rush offense
New Mexico State Aggies #40 run defense
Pass game
even
26 ranks apart
New Mexico Lobos #115 pass offense
New Mexico State Aggies #141 pass defense
Run game
edge New Mexico Lobos
189 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #262 rush offense
New Mexico Lobos #73 run defense
Pass game
edge New Mexico Lobos
92 ranks
New Mexico State Aggies #191 pass offense
New Mexico Lobos #99 pass defense
New Mexico Lobos
Balanced · 56% run
Avg pace
New Mexico State Aggies
Balanced · 47% run
Avg pace
Jason Eck · 9-4
Tony Sanchez · 27-57 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Mexico Lobos
RB
Scottre Humphrey
174 rush yds · 3 TD
#64 RB
TE
Cade Keith
5 rec · 91 yds · 1 TD
#46 TE
DL
Brett Karhu
4 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 2.5 TFL
#260 DL
K
Grant Glasgow
3 FG · 10 XP · 19 pts
#43 K
New Mexico State Aggies
DB
Nick Session
21 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#19 DB
DL
Gabe Peterson
13 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#63 DL
WR
TK King
14 rec · 239 yds · 2 TD
#48 WR
RB
James Jones
243 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#43 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Mexico offense vs New Mexico State defense+9.0 pts
New Mexico State offense vs New Mexico defense-3.6 pts
Altitude · context only346 m lower than the visitor's home elevation
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.