← Matchups

UAlbany

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -6.2 · #254
Our numberBUF -15.9 no book has priced this game

Buffalo

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.4 · #221
Final UALB 17 · BUF 21 ML W Spread W Total L our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
MoneylineBUF to win logged ours 81%

Our number: BUF by 17.6 — BUF to win.

Projected score 17–33 UALB – BUF
2026-09-03 · 7:00 PM Broadview Stadium · Buffalo, NY Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book UALB spreadBUF spread OverUnder UALB winBUF win UALB TT overUALB TT under BUF TT overBUF TT under
DraftKings
FanDuel
BetMGM
ESPN Bet
Caesars

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured in-game spread UALB 87% bets · 85% money total Over 66% bets · 57% money ML BUF 95% bets · 84% money
Series UAlbany and Buffalo split 2 (1–1) · 2 meetings since 2015
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Buffalo Bulls 156 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #208 rush offense Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game edge Buffalo Bulls 121 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #227 pass offense Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Run game edge UAlbany Great Danes 97 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense UAlbany Great Danes #148 run defense
Pass game even 19 ranks apart
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense UAlbany Great Danes #163 pass defense
UAlbany Great Danes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control Buffalo Bulls Balanced · 46% run Avg pace
Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
UAlbany Great Danes
DL Shawan Lewis 10 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #48 DL
DB Victor Holt 19 tkl · 2 PD #176 DB
RB Joey Koch 216 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #95 RB
DL Isaiah Boyd 11 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #304 DL
Buffalo Bulls
WR Chance Morrow 18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD #6 WR
LB SaVeon Brown 16 tkl · 1.0 TFL #66 LB
LB Stevie Bracey 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #118 LB
DL Logan Goodwin 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #231 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
UAlbany Great Danes -6.2 -7.7 +1.5 #254
Buffalo BullsMAC -3.4 -3.1 -0.3 #221

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
UAlbany offense vs Buffalo defense-7.3 pts
Buffalo offense vs UAlbany defense-4.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.