BallKnowMe college football, by the numbers

← Matchups

Sacred Heart

· 0-2 · power -15.6 · #351
Our side · spreadSHU +23.5 logged our number at the pick MASS -17.9 · now MASS -24.0 · 0.5 pts from the market now

Massachusetts

MAC · 2-0 · power -3.1 · #218
Final SHU 10 · MASS 37 ML W Spread L Total W our logged sides, graded on the record
Our side
SpreadSHU +23.5 logged live now: MASS -23.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours MASS -24.0

The line has not moved a point since it opened (MASS -23.5 → -23.5), so our number decides: MASS by 17.9 against MASS -23.5 means SHU covers.

TotalUnder 54.5 logged live now: Under 53.5 — the pick stands, the number moved · ours 53.4

The total has not moved a point since it opened (53.5 → 54.5); ours 54.1 against 54.5 says under.

MoneylineMASS to win logged ours 91% · book 93%

Our number: MASS by 17.9 — MASS to win.

Distance from the market 0.5 pts / -0.1 total a caution, not a signal
Projected score 15–39 SHU – MASS
2026-09-12 · 3:30 PM Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MA Early season

The books 5 account books · tap any price — the ticket builds at that book

Book SHU spreadMASS spread OverUnder SHU winMASS win SHU TT overSHU TT under MASS TT overMASS TT under
DraftKings — — — —
FanDuel — — — —
BetMGM — — — —
ESPN Bet — — — —
Caesars — — — —

The gold price is the best available on that side; a gold ★ marks the side our number implies — a read, not a pick. TT is a team total — that team’s own points, not the game’s; columns are empty where no book hangs one. Send to book opens whichever book you tapped, not the one we would have picked. Prices are the books’ own.

Ours vs the market

SpreadMassachusetts -24.0
the marketMassachusetts -23.5
Total53.4
the market53.5
Massachusetts win91% vs 93%

Both percentages are Massachusetts’s chance to win — ours, then the book’s with the vig removed, medianed across the books we track.

What the gap has been worth 10,740 games · 2016–2025

0–3 pts52.0%
3–750.2%
7–1449.3%
14+46.8%

How often the side we favoured covered, by how far our number sat from the market’s. Break-even at −110 is 52.4% — no bucket reaches it, and the rate falls as we disagree more. The further we sit from the market, the worse we have done.

Public vs booksbets vs money · Action Network captured 36 hr ago spread SHU 82% bets · 53% money total Under 54% bets · 55% money ML MASS 98% bets · 99% money
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Sacred Heart Pioneers 203 ranks
Sacred Heart Pioneers #19 rush offense Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game edge Sacred Heart Pioneers 195 ranks
Sacred Heart Pioneers #69 pass offense Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Run game even 40 ranks apart
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense Sacred Heart Pioneers #206 run defense
Pass game edge Sacred Heart Pioneers 67 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense Sacred Heart Pioneers #190 pass defense
Sacred Heart Pioneers Run-heavy · 67% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 55 rush ypg Massachusetts Minutemen Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Joe Harasymiak · 0-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Sacred Heart Pioneers
WR Dean Hangey 6 rec · 115 yds · 2 TD #215 WR
LB Myles Hamilton 14 tkl · 2.0 TFL #225 LB
DL Janier Armstead 5 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #474 DL
DB Ryan Palmieri 14 tkl #519 DB
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB Jahmad Harmon 3 tkl · 3 INT #42 DB
QB William Watson III 349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #19 QB
DB Zeraun Daniel 12 tkl · 1 PD #225 DB
RB Elijah Faulkner 134 rush yds · 2 rec #133 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Sacred Heart Pioneers -15.6 -9.9 -5.6 #351
Massachusetts MinutemenMAC -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 #218

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Sacred Heart offense vs Massachusetts defense-8.8 pts
Massachusetts offense vs Sacred Heart defense+3.6 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.