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Robert Morris

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -9.0 · #282
Our numberBUF -18.2 no book has priced this game

Buffalo

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.4 · #221
Our side
MoneylineBUF to win ours 84%
Projected score 15–34 RMU – BUF
2026-09-26 · 3:30 PM Broadview Stadium · Buffalo, NY Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Buffalo lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2019
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Buffalo Bulls 208 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #260 rush offense Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game edge Buffalo Bulls 114 ranks
Robert Morris Colonials #220 pass offense Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Run game edge Robert Morris Colonials 84 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense Robert Morris Colonials #161 run defense
Pass game edge Robert Morris Colonials 88 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense Robert Morris Colonials #94 pass defense
Robert Morris Colonials Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Buffalo Bulls Balanced · 46% run Avg pace
Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Robert Morris Colonials
WR Galen Combs 15 rec · 307 yds · 5 TD #10 WR
DL Asher Wilson 14 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #30 DL
LB Amanuel Dickson 23 tkl · 3.5 TFL #40 LB
DL David Johnson 5 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL #362 DL
Buffalo Bulls
WR Chance Morrow 18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD #6 WR
LB SaVeon Brown 16 tkl · 1.0 TFL #66 LB
LB Stevie Bracey 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #118 LB
DL Logan Goodwin 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #231 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Robert Morris Colonials -9.0 -9.9 +0.9 #282
Buffalo BullsMAC -3.4 -3.1 -0.3 #221

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Robert Morris offense vs Buffalo defense-9.6 pts
Buffalo offense vs Robert Morris defense-4.0 pts
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.