← Matchups

Lindenwood

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -11.9 · #319
Our numberEMU -21.6 no book has priced this game

Eastern Michigan

MAC · 1-2 · power -3.8 · #227
Our side
MoneylineEMU to win ours 88%
Projected score 17–38 LIN – EMU
2026-09-26 · 1:00 PM Rynearson Stadium · Ypsilanti, MI Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Lindenwood Lions 49 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #180 rush offense Eastern Michigan Eagles #229 run defense
Pass game edge Lindenwood Lions 133 ranks
Lindenwood Lions #60 pass offense Eastern Michigan Eagles #193 pass defense
Run game edge Eastern Michigan Eagles 95 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #75 rush offense Lindenwood Lions #170 run defense
Pass game edge Eastern Michigan Eagles 63 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #109 pass offense Lindenwood Lions #172 pass defense
Lindenwood Lions Run-heavy · 58% run Ball-control Eastern Michigan Eagles Balanced · 52% run Avg pace
Chris Creighton · 59-73 · offense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Lindenwood Lions
DL Mason Burke 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #152 DL
DL King Smith 8 tkl · 2.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL #182 DL
DB Isaac Edwards 7 tkl · 1 INT #378 DB
DL David Amaliri 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #451 DL
Eastern Michigan Eagles
LB Zach Mowchan 30 tkl · 2.0 TFL #6 LB
DL Quincy Byas 12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #18 DL
DB Jason Marshall 20 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #41 DB
DB Bryce Llewellyn 14 tkl · 2 PD #67 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Lindenwood Lions -11.9 -4.9 -7.1 #319
Eastern Michigan EaglesMAC -3.8 -4.1 +0.3 #227

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Lindenwood offense vs Eastern Michigan defense-5.2 pts
Eastern Michigan offense vs Lindenwood defense+3.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment+20.2
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 433 mi
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.