Our side
MoneylineTOL to win
ours 24%
Projected score
32–20
TOL – BALL
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Scheumann Stadium · Muncie, IN
MAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Toledo lead
28–21–1
· 50 meetings since 1975
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Toledo Rockets
150 ranks
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offense
Ball State Cardinals #220 run defense
Pass game
edge Toledo Rockets
132 ranks
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offense
Ball State Cardinals #198 pass defense
Run game
edge Toledo Rockets
202 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #225 rush offense
Toledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass game
edge Toledo Rockets
258 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #262 pass offense
Toledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Toledo Rockets
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Ball State Cardinals
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg
Robert Weiner · 0-1
Mike Uremovich · 4-8 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Toledo Rockets
LB
Isaac Zay
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#14 LB
DL
Andrew Zock
9 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#68 DL
WR
Adjatay Dabbs
8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD
#59 WR
RB
Connor Walendzak
110 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#67 RB
Ball State Cardinals
DB
Anthony Pinnace
6 tkl · 1 PD
#261 DB
TE
Tate Hoover
6 rec · 23 yds · 1 TD
#70 TE
RB
Jalen Bonds
86 rush yds · 1 TD · 2 rec
#211 RB
DB
Kamron Chamble
4 tkl · 2 INT
#507 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Toledo offense vs Ball State defense+5.7 pts
Ball State offense vs Toledo defense-7.5 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.