← Matchups

Western Michigan

MAC · 1-1 · power +16.8 · #49
Our numberWMU -18.9 no book has priced this game

Buffalo

MAC · 1-1 · power -3.4 · #221
Our side
MoneylineWMU to win ours 13%
Projected score 34–15 WMU – BUF
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Broadview Stadium · Buffalo, NY MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Western Michigan lead 9–2 · 11 meetings since 1999
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Buffalo Bulls 53 ranks
Western Michigan Broncos #105 rush offense Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game edge Buffalo Bulls 129 ranks
Western Michigan Broncos #235 pass offense Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Run game edge Western Michigan Broncos 198 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense Western Michigan Broncos #47 run defense
Pass game edge Western Michigan Broncos 131 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense Western Michigan Broncos #51 pass defense
Western Michigan Broncos Run-heavy · 69% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 72 rush ypg Buffalo Bulls Balanced · 46% run Avg pace
Lance Taylor · 20-19 · defense-minded Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Western Michigan Broncos
DL Austin Alexander 6 tkl #111 DL
K Dieter Kelly 4 FG · 7 XP · 19 pts #29 K
DB Joey Pope 9 tkl · 3 PD #232 DB
LB Domanick Moon 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.5 TFL #166 LB
Buffalo Bulls
WR Chance Morrow 18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD #6 WR
LB SaVeon Brown 16 tkl · 1.0 TFL #66 LB
LB Stevie Bracey 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #118 LB
DL Logan Goodwin 2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #231 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Western Michigan BroncosMAC +16.8 +3.4 +13.4 #49
Buffalo BullsMAC -3.4 -3.1 -0.3 #221

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Western Michigan offense vs Buffalo defense+3.7 pts
Buffalo offense vs Western Michigan defense-16.4 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.