← Matchups

Eastern Michigan

MAC · 1-2 · power -3.8 · #227
Our numberMASS -4.7 no book has priced this game

Massachusetts

MAC · 2-0 · power -3.1 · #218
Our side
MoneylineMASS to win ours 56%
Projected score 23–28 EMU – MASS
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MA MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Eastern Michigan lead 4–2 · 6 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Eastern Michigan Eagles 147 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #75 rush offense Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game edge Eastern Michigan Eagles 155 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #109 pass offense Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Run game even 17 ranks apart
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense Eastern Michigan Eagles #229 run defense
Pass game edge Eastern Michigan Eagles 64 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense Eastern Michigan Eagles #193 pass defense
Eastern Michigan Eagles Balanced · 52% run Avg pace Massachusetts Minutemen Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Chris Creighton · 59-73 · offense-minded Joe Harasymiak · 0-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Michigan Eagles
LB Zach Mowchan 30 tkl · 2.0 TFL #6 LB
DL Quincy Byas 12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #18 DL
DB Jason Marshall 20 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT #41 DB
DB Bryce Llewellyn 14 tkl · 2 PD #67 DB
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB Jahmad Harmon 3 tkl · 3 INT #42 DB
QB William Watson III 349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #19 QB
DB Zeraun Daniel 12 tkl · 1 PD #225 DB
RB Elijah Faulkner 134 rush yds · 2 rec #133 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Eastern Michigan EaglesMAC -3.8 -4.1 +0.3 #227
Massachusetts MinutemenMAC -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 #218

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Eastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defense-3.0 pts
Massachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defense-2.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 567 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.