Our side
MoneylineMASS to win
ours 56%
Projected score
23–28
EMU – MASS
2026-10-03 · kickoff TBD
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MA
MAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Eastern Michigan lead
4–2
· 6 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Eastern Michigan Eagles
147 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #75 rush offense
Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game
edge Eastern Michigan Eagles
155 ranks
Eastern Michigan Eagles #109 pass offense
Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Run game
even
17 ranks apart
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense
Eastern Michigan Eagles #229 run defense
Pass game
edge Eastern Michigan Eagles
64 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense
Eastern Michigan Eagles #193 pass defense
Eastern Michigan Eagles
Balanced · 52% run
Avg pace
Massachusetts Minutemen
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Chris Creighton · 59-73 · offense-minded
Joe Harasymiak · 0-12
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Eastern Michigan Eagles
LB
Zach Mowchan
30 tkl · 2.0 TFL
#6 LB
DL
Quincy Byas
12 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#18 DL
DB
Jason Marshall
20 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
#41 DB
DB
Bryce Llewellyn
14 tkl · 2 PD
#67 DB
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB
Jahmad Harmon
3 tkl · 3 INT
#42 DB
QB
William Watson III
349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#19 QB
DB
Zeraun Daniel
12 tkl · 1 PD
#225 DB
RB
Elijah Faulkner
134 rush yds · 2 rec
#133 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Eastern Michigan offense vs Massachusetts defense-3.0 pts
Massachusetts offense vs Eastern Michigan defense-2.3 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 567 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.