Our side
MoneylineTOL to win
ours 89%
Projected score
15–38
BUF – TOL
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD
Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH
MAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Toledo lead
6–5
· 11 meetings since 1970
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Toledo Rockets
222 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense
Toledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass game
edge Toledo Rockets
178 ranks
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense
Toledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Run game
even
18 ranks apart
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offense
Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game
even
40 ranks apart
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offense
Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Buffalo Bulls
Balanced · 46% run
Avg pace
Toledo Rockets
Balanced · 55% run
Ball-control
Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded
Robert Weiner · 0-1
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Buffalo Bulls
WR
Chance Morrow
18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD
#6 WR
LB
SaVeon Brown
16 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#66 LB
LB
Stevie Bracey
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#118 LB
DL
Logan Goodwin
2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#231 DL
Toledo Rockets
LB
Isaac Zay
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#14 LB
DL
Andrew Zock
9 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#68 DL
WR
Adjatay Dabbs
8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD
#59 WR
RB
Connor Walendzak
110 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec
#67 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Buffalo offense vs Toledo defense-10.7 pts
Toledo offense vs Buffalo defense+7.2 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.