← Matchups

Miami (OH)

MAC · 1-1 · power +4.3 · #128
Our numberM-OH -2.3 no book has priced this game

Massachusetts

MAC · 2-0 · power -3.1 · #218
Our side
MoneylineM-OH to win ours 37%
Projected score 27–25 M-OH – MASS
2026-10-10 · kickoff TBD Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MA MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Miami (OH) lead 5–1 · 6 meetings since 2012
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 66 ranks
Miami (OH) RedHawks #156 rush offense Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 104 ranks
Miami (OH) RedHawks #160 pass offense Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Run game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 172 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 run defense
Pass game edge Miami (OH) RedHawks 183 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense Miami (OH) RedHawks #74 pass defense
Miami (OH) RedHawks Balanced · 54% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 49 rush ypg Massachusetts Minutemen Balanced · 51% run Ball-control
Chuck Martin · 70-64 · defense-minded Joe Harasymiak · 0-12

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Miami (OH) RedHawks
QB David McComb 474 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #62 QB
WR Damarion Witten 3 rec · 100 yds · 2 TD #203 WR
TE Christian Ross 4 rec · 52 yds · 1 TD #81 TE
WR Lynel Billups-Williams 8 rec · 104 yds · 1 TD #266 WR
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB Jahmad Harmon 3 tkl · 3 INT #42 DB
QB William Watson III 349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT #19 QB
DB Zeraun Daniel 12 tkl · 1 PD #225 DB
RB Elijah Faulkner 134 rush yds · 2 rec #133 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Miami (OH) RedHawksMAC +4.3 +3.3 +0.9 #128
Massachusetts MinutemenMAC -3.1 -2.0 -1.1 #218

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Miami (OH) offense vs Massachusetts defense+4.5 pts
Massachusetts offense vs Miami (OH) defense-3.0 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 666 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.