Our side
MoneylineBALL to win
ours 44%
Projected score
27–26
BALL – MASS
2026-11-04 · kickoff TBD
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium · Amherst, MA
MAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Massachusetts and Ball State split 4 (2–2)
· 4 meetings since 1984
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
3 ranks apart
Ball State Cardinals #225 rush offense
Massachusetts Minutemen #222 run defense
Pass game
even
2 ranks apart
Ball State Cardinals #262 pass offense
Massachusetts Minutemen #264 pass defense
Run game
even
26 ranks apart
Massachusetts Minutemen #246 rush offense
Ball State Cardinals #220 run defense
Pass game
edge Ball State Cardinals
59 ranks
Massachusetts Minutemen #257 pass offense
Ball State Cardinals #198 pass defense
Ball State Cardinals
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg
Massachusetts Minutemen
Balanced · 51% run
Ball-control
Mike Uremovich · 4-8 · defense-minded
Joe Harasymiak · 0-12
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Ball State Cardinals
DB
Anthony Pinnace
6 tkl · 1 PD
#261 DB
TE
Tate Hoover
6 rec · 23 yds · 1 TD
#70 TE
RB
Jalen Bonds
86 rush yds · 1 TD · 2 rec
#211 RB
DB
Kamron Chamble
4 tkl · 2 INT
#507 DB
Massachusetts Minutemen
DB
Jahmad Harmon
3 tkl · 3 INT
#42 DB
QB
William Watson III
349 pass yds · 4 TD · 0 INT
#19 QB
DB
Zeraun Daniel
12 tkl · 1 PD
#225 DB
RB
Elijah Faulkner
134 rush yds · 2 rec
#133 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Ball State offense vs Massachusetts defense+1.2 pts
Massachusetts offense vs Ball State defense-3.2 pts
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 684 mi
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.