Our side
MoneylineBALL to win
ours 66%
Projected score
24–30
BUF – BALL
2026-11-11 · kickoff TBD
Scheumann Stadium · Muncie, IN
MAC game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Ball State lead
11–3
· 14 meetings since 1969
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
25 ranks apart
Buffalo Bulls #245 rush offense
Ball State Cardinals #220 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
Buffalo Bulls #182 pass offense
Ball State Cardinals #198 pass defense
Run game
edge Buffalo Bulls
173 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #225 rush offense
Buffalo Bulls #52 run defense
Pass game
edge Buffalo Bulls
156 ranks
Ball State Cardinals #262 pass offense
Buffalo Bulls #106 pass defense
Buffalo Bulls
Balanced · 46% run
Avg pace
Ball State Cardinals
Run-heavy · 62% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 50 rush ypg
Pete Lembo · 17-20 · defense-minded
Mike Uremovich · 4-8 · defense-minded
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Buffalo Bulls
WR
Chance Morrow
18 rec · 221 yds · 5 TD
#6 WR
LB
SaVeon Brown
16 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#66 LB
LB
Stevie Bracey
16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#118 LB
DL
Logan Goodwin
2 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#231 DL
Ball State Cardinals
DB
Anthony Pinnace
6 tkl · 1 PD
#261 DB
TE
Tate Hoover
6 rec · 23 yds · 1 TD
#70 TE
RB
Jalen Bonds
86 rush yds · 1 TD · 2 rec
#211 RB
DB
Kamron Chamble
4 tkl · 2 INT
#507 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Buffalo offense vs Ball State defense-4.2 pts
Ball State offense vs Buffalo defense+0.4 pts
An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have
played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.