← Matchups

Bowling Green

MAC · 0-2 · power -1.8 · #194
Our numberTOL -19.1 no book has priced this game

Toledo

MAC · 1-1 · power +14.5 · #57
Our side
MoneylineTOL to win ours 87%
Projected score 16–35 BGSU – TOL
2026-11-20 · 7:30 PM Glass Bowl · Toledo, OH MAC game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Toledo lead 33–30–1 · 64 meetings since 1962
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Toledo Rockets 165 ranks
Bowling Green Falcons #188 rush offense Toledo Rockets #23 run defense
Pass game edge Toledo Rockets 195 ranks
Bowling Green Falcons #199 pass offense Toledo Rockets #4 pass defense
Run game edge Toledo Rockets 58 ranks
Toledo Rockets #70 rush offense Bowling Green Falcons #128 run defense
Pass game edge Toledo Rockets 125 ranks
Toledo Rockets #66 pass offense Bowling Green Falcons #191 pass defense
Bowling Green Falcons Run-heavy · 63% run Ball-control Toledo Rockets Balanced · 55% run Ball-control
Eddie George · 4-8 · defense-minded Robert Weiner · 0-1

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Bowling Green Falcons
DB Kal-El Pascal 22 tkl · 1 PD #29 DB
LB Dorian Pringle 23 tkl · 1.5 TFL #41 LB
TE Jeremiah Scoby 12 rec · 121 yds #25 TE
DB JoJo Johnson 9 tkl · 1 INT #359 DB
Toledo Rockets
LB Isaac Zay 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #14 LB
DL Andrew Zock 9 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #68 DL
WR Adjatay Dabbs 8 rec · 135 yds · 3 TD #59 WR
RB Connor Walendzak 110 rush yds · 2 TD · 4 rec #67 RB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Bowling Green FalconsMAC -1.8 -6.9 +5.1 #194
Toledo RocketsMAC +14.5 +6.8 +7.6 #57

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Bowling Green offense vs Toledo defense-14.5 pts
Toledo offense vs Bowling Green defense+1.8 pts

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.