← Matchups

Maine

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -13.6 · #333

Our numberTOW -4.6 ~~no book has priced this game~~

Towson

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -11.9 · #317

Final ME 21 · TOW 18 ML L our logged sides, graded on the record

Our side

MoneylineTOW to win logged ours 60%

Our number: TOW by 4.6 — TOW to win.

Projected score 24–28 ME – TOW

2026-08-27 · 6:00 PM Johnny Unitas Stadium · Towson, MD Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Maine lead 5–4 · 9 meetings since 2006

2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played

Run game edge Maine Black Bears ~~105 ranks~~

Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense Towson Tigers #183 run defense

Pass game even ~~41 ranks apart~~

Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense Towson Tigers #159 pass defense

Run game edge Maine Black Bears ~~134 ranks~~

Towson Tigers #239 rush offense Maine Black Bears #105 run defense

Pass game even ~~7 ranks apart~~

Towson Tigers #51 pass offense Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense

Maine Black Bears Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control Towson Tigers Balanced · 50% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025

Maine Black Bears

DL Chris Bacon 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #24 DL

LB Sam Oppenheimer 32 tkl · 1.0 TFL #17 LB

DL Bryce Purnell 11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #161 DL

DL Derek Berlitz 15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #184 DL

Towson Tigers

WR Aaron Enterline 16 rec · 214 yds · 3 TD #23 WR

DB Bryan Lodge 14 tkl · 1 PD #263 DB

LB Jaydyn Johnson 24 tkl · 1.0 TFL #165 LB

DB Marquis Cooper 8 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #280 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown

Team	Power	Off	Def	Rank
Maine Black Bears	-13.6	-9.6	-4.0	#333
Towson Tigers	-11.9	-7.2	-4.6	#317

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from

Maine offense vs Towson defense-5.0 pts

Towson offense vs Maine defense-3.3 pts

Travel · context onlyAway team travels 557 mi

An efficiency adjustment from season-to-date EPA and success rate applies once teams have played enough games; before then it is 0 and the number is the power rating alone.

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.