Our side
MoneylineSTBK to win
ours 37%
Projected score
31–25
STBK – FOR
2026-09-26 · 1:00 PM
Moglia Stadium at Jack Coffey Field · Bronx, NY
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stony Brook lead
4–3
· 7 meetings since 2018
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Fordham Rams
75 ranks
Stony Brook Seawolves #110 rush offense
Fordham Rams #35 run defense
Pass game
even
32 ranks apart
Stony Brook Seawolves #229 pass offense
Fordham Rams #197 pass defense
Run game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
152 ranks
Fordham Rams #186 rush offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #34 run defense
Pass game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
91 ranks
Fordham Rams #252 pass offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #161 pass defense
Stony Brook Seawolves
Balanced · 52% run
Up-tempo
Fordham Rams
Balanced · 45% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Stony Brook Seawolves
DL
Khalid Bueno
21 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 8.5 TFL
#2 DL
DB
Joseph Garcia
34 tkl · 1 INT
#3 DB
WR
Seth Sweitzer
24 rec · 288 yds · 2 TD
#22 WR
TE
Keiden Gutierrez
10 rec · 102 yds · 2 TD
#14 TE
Fordham Rams
LB
Andrew Osmun
29 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#5 LB
DB
Justin Johnson
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#34 DB
DL
Lorenzo Riddick
9 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#125 DL
DL
Jakub Mwangelwa
7 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#141 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Stony Brook offense vs Fordham defense+3.0 pts
Fordham offense vs Stony Brook defense-4.2 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.4 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).