Our side
MoneylineELON to win
ours 22%
Projected score
34–21
ELON – UNH
2026-10-03 · 1:00 PM
Wildcat Stadium (NH) · Durham, NH
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
New Hampshire lead
7–2
· 9 meetings since 2014
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Elon Phoenix
101 ranks
Elon Phoenix #126 rush offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #227 run defense
Pass game
even
30 ranks apart
Elon Phoenix #123 pass offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #153 pass defense
Run game
edge Elon Phoenix
55 ranks
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 rush offense
Elon Phoenix #61 run defense
Pass game
even
17 ranks apart
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 pass offense
Elon Phoenix #133 pass defense
Elon Phoenix
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Dual-threat QB · 51 rush ypg
New Hampshire Wildcats
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Elon Phoenix
RB
Kamerin McDowell-Moore
280 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec
#71 RB
LB
Brodie Carroll
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#110 LB
DL
Dillon Pardue
9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#257 DL
DB
Remington Moss
6 tkl · 5 PD
#265 DB
New Hampshire Wildcats
LB
Trevor Barry
39 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#21 LB
DB
Jackson Stone
27 tkl · 1 PD
#76 DB
WR
Ja'Carree Kelly
14 rec · 211 yds · 1 TD
#110 WR
RB
Joquez Smith
208 rush yds · 3 TD
#82 RB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Elon offense vs New Hampshire defense+3.9 pts
New Hampshire offense vs Elon defense-7.0 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-4.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-8.6
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 665 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.