← Matchups

Towson

· 0-3 (0-1) · power -11.9 · #317
Our numberMONM -8.9 no book has priced this game

Monmouth

· 1-2 · power -7.2 · #268
Our side
MoneylineMONM to win ours 71%
Projected score 26–35 TOW – MONM
2026-10-03 · 1:00 PM Kessler Stadium · West Long Branch, NJ Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Towson and Monmouth split 4 (2–2) · 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Monmouth Hawks 105 ranks
Towson Tigers #239 rush offense Monmouth Hawks #134 run defense
Pass game edge Towson Tigers 77 ranks
Towson Tigers #51 pass offense Monmouth Hawks #128 pass defense
Run game edge Monmouth Hawks 157 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #26 rush offense Towson Tigers #183 run defense
Pass game edge Monmouth Hawks 138 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #21 pass offense Towson Tigers #159 pass defense
Towson Tigers Balanced · 50% run Ball-control Monmouth Hawks Balanced · 51% run Up-tempo

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Towson Tigers
WR Aaron Enterline 16 rec · 214 yds · 3 TD #23 WR
DB Bryan Lodge 14 tkl · 1 PD #263 DB
LB Jaydyn Johnson 24 tkl · 1.0 TFL #165 LB
DB Marquis Cooper 8 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #280 DB
Monmouth Hawks
DB Jaeden Jones 33 tkl #31 DB
RB Kenny Smith Jr. 166 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec #41 RB
WR Tra Neal 19 rec · 188 yds · 1 TD #63 WR
WR Gavin Nelson 19 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD #83 WR

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Towson Tigers -11.9 -7.2 -4.6 #317
Monmouth Hawks -7.2 +2.0 -9.3 #268

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Towson offense vs Monmouth defense+2.0 pts
Monmouth offense vs Towson defense+6.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+1.3 pts
Power projection before adjustment+7.6

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).