← Matchups

Delaware State

· 2-1 · power -8.5 · #279
Our numberUALB -4.1 no book has priced this game

UAlbany

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -6.2 · #254
Our side
MoneylineUALB to win ours 60%
Projected score 22–26 DSU – UALB
2026-10-03 · 3:30 PM Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium · Albany, NY Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Delaware State lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2025
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Delaware State Hornets 142 ranks
Delaware State Hornets #6 rush offense UAlbany Great Danes #148 run defense
Pass game even 4 ranks apart
Delaware State Hornets #167 pass offense UAlbany Great Danes #163 pass defense
Run game edge Delaware State Hornets 84 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #208 rush offense Delaware State Hornets #124 run defense
Pass game edge Delaware State Hornets 101 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #227 pass offense Delaware State Hornets #126 pass defense
Delaware State Hornets Run-heavy · 67% run Avg pace Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg UAlbany Great Danes Balanced · 52% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Delaware State Hornets
DB Kemari Nix 17 tkl · 1 PD #64 DB
DL Quoy Rainey 13 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL #173 DL
DL Gensley Auguste 11 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #235 DL
WR Jaylin Terzado 10 rec · 185 yds · 1 TD #158 WR
UAlbany Great Danes
DL Shawan Lewis 10 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL #48 DL
DB Victor Holt 19 tkl · 2 PD #176 DB
RB Joey Koch 216 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec #95 RB
DL Isaiah Boyd 11 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL #304 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Delaware State Hornets -8.5 -6.5 -2.0 #279
UAlbany Great Danes -6.2 -7.7 +1.5 #254

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Delaware State offense vs UAlbany defense-8.1 pts
UAlbany offense vs Delaware State defense-5.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+5.2

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).