Our side
MoneylineHOW to win
ours 20%
Projected score
32–18
HOW – HAMP
2026-10-03 · 3:00 PM
Audi Field · Washington, DC · neutral
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Hampton lead
15–5
· 20 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Howard Bison
106 ranks
Howard Bison #150 rush offense
Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game
even
38 ranks apart
Howard Bison #246 pass offense
Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Run game
edge Howard Bison
118 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense
Howard Bison #100 run defense
Pass game
edge Howard Bison
113 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense
Howard Bison #118 pass defense
Howard Bison
Balanced · 57% run
Ball-control
Hampton Pirates
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Howard Bison
LB
Rodney Roane
16 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#56 LB
DB
Ben Chandler IV
11 tkl · 4 PD
#164 DB
LB
Aidan Foster
19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL
#105 LB
DB
Kaleb Gallop
21 tkl
#199 DB
Hampton Pirates
DB
Cam Sturdifen
27 tkl
#143 DB
DB
Caden Rice
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#154 DB
DL
Korede Sogbesan
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#333 DL
DB
Qwae Willis
16 tkl · 1 PD
#410 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Howard offense vs Hampton defense+2.3 pts
Hampton offense vs Howard defense-12.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.9 pts
Power projection before adjustment-14.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).