← Matchups

Campbell

· 2-1 · power -4.6 · #235
Our numberCAM -4.6 no book has priced this game

North Carolina Central

· 2-1 · power -11.9 · #318
Our side
MoneylineCAM to win ours 39%
Projected score 31–27 CAM – NCCU
2026-10-03 · 6:00 PM O'Kelly-Riddick Stadium · Durham, NC Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series North Carolina Central lead 2–1 · 3 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 52 ranks
Campbell Fighting Camels #197 rush offense North Carolina Central Eagles #145 run defense
Pass game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 70 ranks
Campbell Fighting Camels #173 pass offense North Carolina Central Eagles #103 pass defense
Run game even 36 ranks apart
North Carolina Central Eagles #189 rush offense Campbell Fighting Camels #225 run defense
Pass game edge North Carolina Central Eagles 179 ranks
North Carolina Central Eagles #43 pass offense Campbell Fighting Camels #222 pass defense
Campbell Fighting Camels Balanced · 51% run Avg pace North Carolina Central Eagles Balanced · 53% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Campbell Fighting Camels
DL Justin Garza 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #124 DL
DL Ebenezer Bedada 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #197 DL
WR Spencer Jones 15 rec · 203 yds · 1 TD #136 WR
LB AJ Benton 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #135 LB
North Carolina Central Eagles
DL Zarion Walters 17 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 6.0 TFL #12 DL
DB Joshua Truesdale 19 tkl · 2 PD · 2 INT #88 DB
RB Plez Lawrence 264 rush yds · 3 TD · 1 rec #92 RB
DB Jakarri Martin II 9 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT #231 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Campbell Fighting Camels -4.6 -1.1 -3.5 #235
North Carolina Central Eagles -11.9 -5.0 -6.9 #318

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Campbell offense vs North Carolina Central defense+5.8 pts
North Carolina Central offense vs Campbell defense-1.5 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-4.7

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).