Our side
MoneylineUNH to win
ours 26%
Projected score
35–24
UNH – NCAT
2026-10-10 · 12:00 PM
Truist Stadium · Greensboro, NC
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge New Hampshire Wildcats
123 ranks
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 rush offense
North Carolina A&T Aggies #239 run defense
Pass game
edge New Hampshire Wildcats
135 ranks
New Hampshire Wildcats #116 pass offense
North Carolina A&T Aggies #251 pass defense
Run game
even
10 ranks apart
North Carolina A&T Aggies #217 rush offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #227 run defense
Pass game
even
16 ranks apart
North Carolina A&T Aggies #169 pass offense
New Hampshire Wildcats #153 pass defense
New Hampshire Wildcats
Balanced · 57% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 47 rush ypg
North Carolina A&T Aggies
Balanced · 57% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
New Hampshire Wildcats
LB
Trevor Barry
39 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#21 LB
DB
Jackson Stone
27 tkl · 1 PD
#76 DB
WR
Ja'Carree Kelly
14 rec · 211 yds · 1 TD
#110 WR
RB
Joquez Smith
208 rush yds · 3 TD
#82 RB
North Carolina A&T Aggies
TE
Anthony Rucker
7 rec · 115 yds · 2 TD
#29 TE
DB
Mykell Harvey
16 tkl · 2 PD
#183 DB
WR
Elijah Kennedy
13 rec · 152 yds · 2 TD
#148 WR
DL
Eddie Conover
8 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#336 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
New Hampshire offense vs North Carolina A&T defense+9.7 pts
North Carolina A&T offense vs New Hampshire defense-3.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-10.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 676 mi
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.