← Matchups

Bryant

· 2-1 (1-0) · power -7.5 · #269
Our numberBRY -5.6 no book has priced this game

Maine

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -13.6 · #333
Our side
MoneylineBRY to win ours 36%
Projected score 28–23 BRY – ME
2026-10-17 · 1:00 PM Harold Alfond Sports Stadium · Orono, ME Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Maine lead 7–1 · 8 meetings since 2011
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Maine Black Bears 104 ranks
Bryant Bulldogs #209 rush offense Maine Black Bears #105 run defense
Pass game edge Maine Black Bears 164 ranks
Bryant Bulldogs #208 pass offense Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense
Run game even 9 ranks apart
Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense Bryant Bulldogs #87 run defense
Pass game edge Maine Black Bears 103 ranks
Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense Bryant Bulldogs #221 pass defense
Bryant Bulldogs Balanced · 54% run Avg pace Maine Black Bears Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Bryant Bulldogs
DL Toby Brown Jr. 10 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #190 DL
DB Olatunde Mkparu 20 tkl · 1 PD #335 DB
WR Shamar Fowles 5 rec · 132 yds · 1 TD #341 WR
RB OJ Ross 154 rush yds · 1 TD · 3 rec #246 RB
Maine Black Bears
DL Chris Bacon 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #24 DL
LB Sam Oppenheimer 32 tkl · 1.0 TFL #17 LB
DL Bryce Purnell 11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #161 DL
DL Derek Berlitz 15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #184 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Bryant Bulldogs -7.5 -5.6 -1.9 #269
Maine Black Bears -13.6 -9.6 -4.0 #333

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Bryant offense vs Maine defense-1.6 pts
Maine offense vs Bryant defense-7.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.0 pts
Power projection before adjustment-3.5
Rest · context onlyHome team on 7 more days rest

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.