Our side
MoneylineUALB to win
ours 42%
Projected score
30–26
UALB – STBK
2026-10-17 · 2:30 PM
Kenneth P. LaValle Stadium · Stony Brook, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Stony Brook lead
10–9
· 19 meetings since 2003
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
174 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #208 rush offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #34 run defense
Pass game
edge Stony Brook Seawolves
66 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #227 pass offense
Stony Brook Seawolves #161 pass defense
Run game
even
38 ranks apart
Stony Brook Seawolves #110 rush offense
UAlbany Great Danes #148 run defense
Pass game
edge UAlbany Great Danes
66 ranks
Stony Brook Seawolves #229 pass offense
UAlbany Great Danes #163 pass defense
UAlbany Great Danes
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Stony Brook Seawolves
Balanced · 52% run
Up-tempo
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
UAlbany Great Danes
DL
Shawan Lewis
10 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#48 DL
DB
Victor Holt
19 tkl · 2 PD
#176 DB
RB
Joey Koch
216 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
#95 RB
DL
Isaiah Boyd
11 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#304 DL
Stony Brook Seawolves
DL
Khalid Bueno
21 tkl · 4.5 sacks · 8.5 TFL
#2 DL
DB
Joseph Garcia
34 tkl · 1 INT
#3 DB
WR
Seth Sweitzer
24 rec · 288 yds · 2 TD
#22 WR
TE
Keiden Gutierrez
10 rec · 102 yds · 2 TD
#14 TE
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
UAlbany offense vs Stony Brook defense+2.1 pts
Stony Brook offense vs UAlbany defense-2.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment-2.3
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.