← Matchups

Campbell

· 2-1 · power -4.6 · #235
Our numberCAM -8.6 no book has priced this game

Maine

· 1-2 (1-0) · power -13.6 · #333
Our side
MoneylineCAM to win ours 30%
Projected score 32–23 CAM – ME
2026-10-24 · 1:00 PM Harold Alfond Sports Stadium · Orono, ME Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Campbell lead 1–0 · 1 meeting since 2023
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Maine Black Bears 92 ranks
Campbell Fighting Camels #197 rush offense Maine Black Bears #105 run defense
Pass game edge Maine Black Bears 129 ranks
Campbell Fighting Camels #173 pass offense Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense
Run game edge Maine Black Bears 147 ranks
Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense Campbell Fighting Camels #225 run defense
Pass game edge Maine Black Bears 104 ranks
Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense Campbell Fighting Camels #222 pass defense
Campbell Fighting Camels Balanced · 51% run Avg pace Maine Black Bears Run-heavy · 61% run Ball-control

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Campbell Fighting Camels
DL Justin Garza 7 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #124 DL
DL Ebenezer Bedada 8 tkl · 1.5 TFL #197 DL
WR Spencer Jones 15 rec · 203 yds · 1 TD #136 WR
LB AJ Benton 16 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 1.0 TFL #135 LB
Maine Black Bears
DL Chris Bacon 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL #24 DL
LB Sam Oppenheimer 32 tkl · 1.0 TFL #17 LB
DL Bryce Purnell 11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #161 DL
DL Derek Berlitz 15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL #184 DL

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Campbell Fighting Camels -4.6 -1.1 -3.5 #235
Maine Black Bears -13.6 -9.6 -4.0 #333

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Campbell offense vs Maine defense+2.9 pts
Maine offense vs Campbell defense-6.1 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-2.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment-6.5
Travel · context onlyAway team travels 843 mi

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).

Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them. Adding them again would double-count.