Our side
MoneylineMONM to win
ours 14%
Projected score
39–21
MONM – HAMP
2026-10-24 · 2:00 PM
Armstrong Stadium · Hampton, VA
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Monmouth lead
5–0
· 5 meetings since 2017
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Monmouth Hawks
230 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #26 rush offense
Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
187 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #21 pass offense
Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Run game
edge Monmouth Hawks
84 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense
Monmouth Hawks #134 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
103 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense
Monmouth Hawks #128 pass defense
Monmouth Hawks
Balanced · 51% run
Up-tempo
Hampton Pirates
Run-heavy · 60% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Monmouth Hawks
DB
Jaeden Jones
33 tkl
#31 DB
RB
Kenny Smith Jr.
166 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#41 RB
WR
Tra Neal
19 rec · 188 yds · 1 TD
#63 WR
WR
Gavin Nelson
19 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
#83 WR
Hampton Pirates
DB
Cam Sturdifen
27 tkl
#143 DB
DB
Caden Rice
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#154 DB
DL
Korede Sogbesan
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL
#333 DL
DB
Qwae Willis
16 tkl · 1 PD
#410 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Monmouth offense vs Hampton defense+12.5 pts
Hampton offense vs Monmouth defense-5.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-1.6 pts
Power projection before adjustment-16.0
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).