Our side
MoneylineURI to win
ours 92%
Projected score
15–37
ME – URI
2026-10-31 · 12:00 PM
Centreville Bank Stadium · Pawtucket, RI
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Maine lead
16–5
· 21 meetings since 2004
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Maine Black Bears
57 ranks
Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense
Rhode Island Rams #135 run defense
Pass game
edge Rhode Island Rams
70 ranks
Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense
Rhode Island Rams #48 pass defense
Run game
even
31 ranks apart
Rhode Island Rams #136 rush offense
Maine Black Bears #105 run defense
Pass game
even
25 ranks apart
Rhode Island Rams #19 pass offense
Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense
Maine Black Bears
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
Rhode Island Rams
Balanced · 53% run
Avg pace
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Maine Black Bears
DL
Chris Bacon
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#24 DL
LB
Sam Oppenheimer
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#17 LB
DL
Bryce Purnell
11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#161 DL
DL
Derek Berlitz
15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#184 DL
Rhode Island Rams
WR
Marquis Buchanan
20 rec · 234 yds · 3 TD
#19 WR
LB
Moses Meus
16 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#29 LB
DL
Case Mankins
6 tkl · 3.0 sacks · 3.0 TFL
#107 DL
DB
Andre DePina-Gray
16 tkl · 2 INT
#206 DB
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Maine offense vs Rhode Island defense-12.9 pts
Rhode Island offense vs Maine defense+5.4 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+0.8 pts
Power projection before adjustment+21.8
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).