← Matchups

Hampton

· 1-2 (0-1) · power -25.5 · #389
Our numberELON -31.4 no book has priced this game

Elon

· 2-1 (0-1) · power +0.1 · #173
Our side
MoneylineELON to win ours 97%
Projected score 9–40 HAMP – ELON
2026-11-07 · 2:00 PM Rhodes Stadium · Elon, NC Conference game Early season

The books

No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.

Series Elon lead 3–1 · 4 meetings since 2022
2025 unit ranks — last completed season, from games actually played
Run game edge Elon Phoenix 157 ranks
Hampton Pirates #218 rush offense Elon Phoenix #61 run defense
Pass game edge Elon Phoenix 98 ranks
Hampton Pirates #231 pass offense Elon Phoenix #133 pass defense
Run game edge Elon Phoenix 130 ranks
Elon Phoenix #126 rush offense Hampton Pirates #256 run defense
Pass game edge Elon Phoenix 85 ranks
Elon Phoenix #123 pass offense Hampton Pirates #208 pass defense
Hampton Pirates Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Elon Phoenix Run-heavy · 60% run Ball-control Dual-threat QB · 51 rush ypg

Ranked by team-unit strength (rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265 D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the 2025 season.

The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above

Who carried each team in 2025
Hampton Pirates
DB Cam Sturdifen 27 tkl #143 DB
DB Caden Rice 13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT #154 DB
DL Korede Sogbesan 8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 3.5 TFL #333 DL
DB Qwae Willis 16 tkl · 1 PD #410 DB
Elon Phoenix
RB Kamerin McDowell-Moore 280 rush yds · 2 TD · 3 rec #71 RB
LB Brodie Carroll 19 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #110 LB
DL Dillon Pardue 9 tkl · 1.0 sacks · 2.0 TFL #257 DL
DB Remington Moss 6 tkl · 5 PD #265 DB

Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no 2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.

Power breakdown
TeamPowerOffDefRank
Hampton Pirates -25.5 -14.9 -10.5 #389
Elon Phoenix +0.1 -4.9 +5.0 #173

Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).

Where the number comes from
Hampton offense vs Elon defense-19.9 pts
Elon offense vs Hampton defense+5.6 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.1 pts
Power projection before adjustment+29.3

The projection carries an efficiency adjustment — a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).