Our side
MoneylineUALB to win
ours 79%
Projected score
18–31
ME – UALB
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey Stadium · Albany, NY
Conference game
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
Series
Maine lead
11–6
· 17 meetings since 2005
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
edge Maine Black Bears
70 ranks
Maine Black Bears #78 rush offense
UAlbany Great Danes #148 run defense
Pass game
edge Maine Black Bears
45 ranks
Maine Black Bears #118 pass offense
UAlbany Great Danes #163 pass defense
Run game
edge Maine Black Bears
103 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #208 rush offense
Maine Black Bears #105 run defense
Pass game
edge Maine Black Bears
183 ranks
UAlbany Great Danes #227 pass offense
Maine Black Bears #44 pass defense
Maine Black Bears
Run-heavy · 61% run
Ball-control
UAlbany Great Danes
Balanced · 52% run
Ball-control
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Maine Black Bears
DL
Chris Bacon
8 tkl · 2.0 sacks · 4.0 TFL
#24 DL
LB
Sam Oppenheimer
32 tkl · 1.0 TFL
#17 LB
DL
Bryce Purnell
11 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#161 DL
DL
Derek Berlitz
15 tkl · 1.5 sacks · 1.5 TFL
#184 DL
UAlbany Great Danes
DL
Shawan Lewis
10 tkl · 3.5 sacks · 4.5 TFL
#48 DL
DB
Victor Holt
19 tkl · 2 PD
#176 DB
RB
Joey Koch
216 rush yds · 1 TD · 5 rec
#95 RB
DL
Isaiah Boyd
11 tkl · 0.5 sacks · 2.0 TFL
#304 DL
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Maine offense vs UAlbany defense-11.1 pts
UAlbany offense vs Maine defense-3.7 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness+2.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.6
Rest · context onlyAway team on 7 more days rest
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).
Situational spots are shown for context, not baked in: travel, altitude and rest
were tested against 6,000+ games and the power and efficiency ratings already account for them.
Adding them again would double-count.