Our side
MoneylineMONM to win
ours 73%
Projected score
23–33
MRMK – MONM
2026-11-14 · 12:00 PM
Kessler Stadium · West Long Branch, NJ
Early season
The books
No book has priced this game. Nothing to compare, and no ticket to build.
First recorded meeting between these programs
2025 unit ranks —
last completed season, from games actually played
Run game
even
35 ranks apart
Merrimack Warriors #99 rush offense
Monmouth Hawks #134 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
105 ranks
Merrimack Warriors #233 pass offense
Monmouth Hawks #128 pass defense
Run game
edge Monmouth Hawks
123 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #26 rush offense
Merrimack Warriors #149 run defense
Pass game
edge Monmouth Hawks
162 ranks
Monmouth Hawks #21 pass offense
Merrimack Warriors #183 pass defense
Merrimack Warriors
Run-heavy · 62% run
Avg pace
Dual-threat QB · 71 rush ypg
Monmouth Hawks
Balanced · 51% run
Up-tempo
Ranked by team-unit strength
(rush & pass offense vs. run & pass defense) across all 265
D1 teams, not by individual players. Identity, tempo and unit strength are measured from the
2025 season.
The evidence 2025 production and power ratings · supporting the number above
Who carried each team in 2025
Merrimack Warriors
DB
Danny Simms
22 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
#27 DB
DB
Bertin Placide
7 tkl · 3 PD · 1 INT
#218 DB
DL
Dwayne Green Jr
9 tkl · 1.5 TFL
#317 DL
DB
Juice Ricks
4 tkl · 1 INT
#303 DB
Monmouth Hawks
DB
Jaeden Jones
33 tkl
#31 DB
RB
Kenny Smith Jr.
166 rush yds · 2 TD · 8 rec
#41 RB
WR
Tra Neal
19 rec · 188 yds · 1 TD
#63 WR
WR
Gavin Nelson
19 rec · 187 yds · 1 TD
#83 WR
Top-rated players from last season, ranked within their
position across D1. A grade measures what a player produced, and no
2026 game has been played yet — so this is who produced for
these programs in 2025, not a claim about who is on the field this year.
Power breakdown
Def is higher = better. The projection assumes a 2.4-pt home edge (0 at neutral sites).
Where the number comes from
Merrimack offense vs Monmouth defense-3.3 pts
Monmouth offense vs Merrimack defense+3.8 pts
Efficiency adjustment · EPA, success rate, explosiveness-0.2 pts
Power projection before adjustment+10.2
The projection carries an efficiency adjustment —
a residual from season-to-date EPA, success rate and explosiveness, which earned its place by
walk-forward test (margin error 12.90 → 12.72 across seven held-out seasons).